房价与地价因果关系--模型和中国1998-2005的事实(PDF 12)

房价与地价因果关系：模型和中国1998-2005的事实
中国社会科学院财贸所 张清勇
摘要：本文应用城市经济学的基本模型，在严格假设下推导得出了住房价格与地价因果关系的模型，发现房价是地价的成因，地价由房价决定。继而应用中国1998年第一季度至2005年第二季度的住宅价格指数进行经验研究。分析结果显示，商品住宅销售价格（RHP）和居民住宅用地交易价格（RLP）、普通住宅销售价格（SRHP）和居民普通住宅用地交易价格（SRLP）分别存在协整关系，即长期的均衡关系；RHP是RLP的短期和长期Granger因，RLP不构成RHP的短期和长期Granger因；SRHP是SRLP的短期和长期Granger因，SRLP不构成SRHP的短期和长期Granger因；豪华住宅销售价格（HRHP）和居民豪华住宅用地交易价格（HRLP）之间不存在协整关系或者说长期的均衡关系。
关键词：房价 地价 因果关系
On the Causal Relationship between Housing and Land Prices: A Model and Evidence from China, 1998-2005
Zhang Qingyong
Abstract: Based on basic models of urban economics, the paper models causal relationship between housing and land prices, indicating that price of land is the result--not the cause--of housing prices. In addition, using quarterly data from Chinese housing market, empirical results show that RHP with RLP, and SRHP with SRLP are respectively cointegrated, denoting long term equilibrium between them; RHP is the short and long term Granger cause of RLP, while not vice versa; SRHP Granger causes SRLP both in the short and long run, but not vice versa; however, there is no cointegration between HRHP and HRLP, meaning no long term
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