次媒介区段外型金钱谈话(pdf 58页)

We see 10-15% upside in the sector in 05 on DCF, CROCI, PE/g ratios
and historical multiples analysis. A high FCF yield of 6.5% in 05E and the
prospect of sector FCF exceeding net debt in 06E (1.4x) underscore our
belief that stock picks must be conditioned by a view on the quality of
managements' deployment of surplus cash. While 05 should not be a year
of strong cyclical upgrades, we are more bullish on the outlook for 06
when we expect the sector to move to discount through the year.
Deutsche Bank AG
Deutsche Bank does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Thus, investors
should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report.
Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.
DISCLOSURES AND ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS ARE LOCATED IN APPENDIX 1
2005 Media Sector Outlook Industry Strategy
Top pick
Reuters (RTR.L), GBP 364.25 Buy
WPP Group (WPP.L), GBP 560.50 Buy
Mediaset (MS.MI), EUR 9.72 Buy
Relative performance European media

Industry Focus Equity Research
Deployment of cash: This is set to remain a key theme and differentiator
of stock performance in 05. We look to favour those companies investing
wisely in new avenues of growth – although we find few examples
currently. We believe the default alternative use of cash should be to
return it to shareholders or retire excess debt. Finally, we expect
companies making dubious/expensive acquisitions/investments, or those
that remain under-geared to see downward ratings pressure.
Broadcasters score well on these criteria over professional publishers.

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