Lehman对华电国际的价值评估报告(pdf 13页)(英文)

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Going forward, Shandong is expected to add 600MW, 1,500MW and 1,600MW (or 4,000MW if including unapproved projects) for 2004-06, representing growth of 2%, 5% and 5-12%, from 30,495MW at end-2003. On the back of reported 18.5% yoy power consumption growth in 9M04 and expected 17%, 14%, 13% demand growth for power supply in Shandong is expected to tighten. Unlike the others, running at excessive 72-75% utilization in power shortage areas that are subjected to downward adjustment risk, with 90% of capacity located in Shandong, Huadian’s
rock bottom 57% utilization is likely to improve gradually and to recover the 63% level achieved in 2001, when the market was relatively balanced in supply and demand.
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