IDC：软件包市场分析与预测（英文版）.pdf60

IDC OPINION
The China software market slowed down in 2002, but looking ahead, the market is
expected to have a 2002-2007 CAGR of 25.8%, driven by the steady growth of the
economy, improvement in IT infrastructure over the past decade, and increasing
demand from enterprises.
y Of the three primary software markets, the applications market made up the
largest proportion of the 2002 China packaged software market. With the
increasing demand for services industry applications, cross-industry applications
and CRM applications, IDC believes that the enterprise applications market will
be the fastest-growing market throughout the forecast period.
y From a geographic perspective, we believe the North, East and South China
markets will continue to be the main consumers for software products in the next
few years. Software investment from West China will not reach the levels of the
other regions until 2005, as the current “Going West” campaign focuses mainly
on the city infrastructure construction.
y Industry restructuring and reform in the telecommunications and securities
markets negatively impacted IT adoption in 2002, including software, affecting
growth. We expect that the investment from these sectors will gradually revive in
late 2003.
y Investment during the Communist Party’s 10th Five-Year Plan is expected to
follow the previous pattern – 1:2:3; that is, one dollar will be invested in the initial
years, two dollars half way through, and three dollars for the final stage. As a
result, we anticipate that the China software market will show fastest growth in
2004 and 2005.
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