摩根司坦利对小灵通的市场分析（英文版）.pdf28

PHS operations appear to be enhancing China Telecom’s profitability
As PHS equipment prices decline (down 50% on our estimates) and
users generate unit revenues similar to those for fixed line, we believe
PHS adds incremental value to China Telecom.
• Regulator is adopting more of a “hands-off” approach
Preoccupied with its own transition between one minister and another,
and with an increasing focus on fully liberalized market competition,
the Ministry of Information Industry (MII) has not intervened in PHS’s
encroachment into larger provincial cities – a move previously
forbidden by the regulator.
• All ducks are in a row for PHS to grow like a weed – but there are still limitations
As a defensive tool against fixed to mobile substitution, PHS has
worked well. By adding pricing pressure and competitive risk to the
cellular industry, however, the PHS rollout strategy may backfire once
China Telecom receives a cellular license of its own.
• Pressure on the cellular players at both low- and high-end of the market
The popularity of PHS has not just dragged down pricing at the lowend
of the cellular market. We also see potential risks that mid- to
high-end users could migrate part of local traffic to PHS for economic
reasons. We estimate 10-15% downside risk in cellular ARPU should
that trend play out.
• Conclusion: We still favor China Telecom for the long term
On a 12-month view, we favor China Telecom over the other wireless
carriers in China given lower regulatory and competitive risks as well
as the safety of a 4.5% yield. However, in the short term (from now
until F2002 results in March), we see a trading opportunity in China
Mobile. The company could surprise the market with a higher-thanexpected
dividend payout or more stable margins. To be clear, the
China Mobile trade is tactical, not strategic.
• We have an In-Line view on China’s Telecom Industry
For the overall industry, undemanding valuations are checked by rising
competitive risks and a murky regulatory environment.
..............................