中国煤变油市场研究英文(pdf 8页)

In her recently published report Coal to Oil – a clean and brightfuture, Credit Suisse mining analyst Trina Chen highlights themassive pipeline of coal to oil plants in China, and the positiveimplications for coal prices.
● In this report, we take a quick glance at the implications for the oilmarket. Incremental oil supply is material beyond 2009, with1 mn bd of new capacityover five years, adding about 15-25% tonon-OPEC’s annual run rate of 0.8-1.2 mn bd. The greatestimpact is in 2010-11, with 0.3 mn bd in each year.
● Assuming that China’s oil demand grows by about 7% p.a., anddomestic crude production grows by around 2.25% p.a., China’simports could slow down to low single digits. We believe that coalto oil is China’s real strategic reserve – it is entirely domestic andlocated inland, meeting strategic needs.
● High oil prices are making alternatives more attractive. They posea risk to oil prices later in the decade. In that period, oil remaiwell supported at US$50-55/bbl. We have UNDERPERFORMratings on PetroChina and PTTEP. We prefer CNOOC in China.We have OUTPERFORM ratings on Medco and SK Corp.Credit Suisse’s metals and mining team recently published a reportcalled Coal to oil – a clean and bright future, dated 6 July. In thereport, the analysts look at the large pipeline of new coal to oilcapacity in China and its impact on coal demand and prices. In thisreport, we look at the implications of this pipeline of capacity growthfor the oil sector.
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