标准普洱的行业报告英文(pdf 34页)

CURRENT ENVIRONMENT.............................................1
INDUSTRY PROFILE .....................................................7
Industry Trends .......................................................9
How the Industry Operates ..........................................15
Key Industry Ratios and Statistics ...................................20
How to Analyze an Entertainment Company ........................21
INDUSTRY REFERENCES ...............................................26
COMPARATIVE COMPANY ANALYSIS ...............................29

 

In anticipation of possible strikes by creativetalent, Hollywood studios have acceleratedtheir production schedules for movies andsome television shows. The Writers Guild ofAmerica (WGA) contract for work onmovies and TV shows, covering about11,000 movie and TV writers, is due to expireat midnight May 1,2001. Additionally,
a contract covering an estimated 135,000 actorsrepresented by the Screen Actors Guild(SAG) and the American Federation ofTelevision and Radio Artists (AFTRA) willexpire on June 30, 2001. In both cases, contractnegotiations are to be conducted withthe Alliance of Motion Picture and TelevisionProducers (AMPTP), which represents morethan 300 production companies and studios.Turmoil in Tinseltown?
If the contracts expire before they arerenegotiated, and if the unions go on strike,Standard & Poor’s does not expect that eitherthe industry or consumers will notice amajor effect as long as the conflict can be resolvedwithin a few weeks. However, alonger-term work stoppage could significantlydisrupt prime-time TV programming inthe new broadcast season that begins inSeptember 2001. It may also alter the choicesat movie theaters in early 2002. Uncertaintyabout what shows will be available for thefall television schedules may create additionaldifficulty for broadcasters trying to sell futureadvertising time, on top of what willprobably be a soft sales environment.A lengthy work stoppage would also likelycontribute to a growing amount of “reality”programming on the air. This genre,typically featuring nonactors in situationswhose outcome is unscripted, has already becomepopular with the success of such showsas Survivor, Who Wants to be a Millionaire,and Weakest Link. In our view, among thevarious outlets for TV programming, the majorbroadcast networks — ABC, CBS, NBC,and FOX — generally have more to losefrom a strike than the cable networks do,since they tend to air more first-run scriptedcomedies and dramas featuring Guil-representedactors. If new prime-time episodes ofsuch shows are scarce, it increases the likelihoodthat viewers will sample some of themany other viewing choices.
Among the major broadcast networks, wesee ABC’s prime-time line-up as the best protectedagainst a prolonged strike. We expectthat network to be able to continue runningat least four new hour-long episodes per weekof the Millionaire quiz show, which accountsfor close to 20% of ABC’s prime-time schedule.For all of the networks, some shows maybe exempted from a walkout by a laborgroup, such as the Screen Actors Guild, grantinga waiver to certain producers, in returnfor these producers’ agreement to accept futurecontract terms.

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