瑞士信贷中国移动季度分析报告(pdf 24)

China Mobile Sector
Issue 10: Steady replacement demand
and data penetration growth
• 2Q05 total handset sales grew 3.3% QoQ (up 27% YoY) to 19.9 mn, the strongest
quarter since we began tracking handset sales trends in 2Q03. Overall, handset
replacement demand remains strong in China, with the ratio of nationwide net adds to
total handset sales at 142% in 2Q05, compared to 105% a year ago.
• Strong replacement demand is driving up the penetration rate of data-capable phones,
which contributed 55.1% of total GSM handset sales, compared to 20.6% a year ago.
GPRS subscribers have also tripled to 32.5 mn, or 14.8% of CMHK’s subscriber base.
• CDMA handset sales remained weak in June due to limited low-end handset availability
and Unicom’s cut in CDMA handset subsidies. However, the release of more low-end
models has lead to a 14% fall in the market-share weighted ASP in the past two months.
• Nokia widened its market share leadership, gaining 1.5 p.p. of share in June to 22%. The
gap between Nokia’s and Motorola’s market share is now 10%. Benefiting from
Unicom’s procurement of low-priced CDMA handsets, Kyocera and UTStarcom both
gained 0.3 p.p. of market share, whilst that of Ningbo Bird and TCL fell by about 0.5 p.p.
• CMHK remains as our top pick, followed by China Netcom. For equipment vendors, we
are positive on ZTE, driven by 3G in China and international growth,
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