银行信贷(英文)(pdf 16页)

Table of Contents
Introduction..............3
Dividend Yield..........3
Capital Generation and Uses (American Express Case Study) ..................................4
Excess Capital .........7
Dividend Payout .......9
Dividend Increases ............11
Conclusion ............14
Table of Figures
Figure 1: Dividend Yield as of November 14, 2003..............4
Figure 2: American Express Net Income Returned to Shareholders 1995–2001 ..........5
Figure 3: Future EPS Growth Rates vs. Current ROEs ...............6
Figure 4: ROEs, Payouts, Asset Growth, Share Repurchases, and Excess Capital .........7
Figure 5: Tangible Equity to Tangible Assets – 4Q02– 3Q03..................................8
Figure 6: Dividend Payouts 4Q02–3Q03 Annualized ..........10
Figure 7: 2003 Quarterly Dividends Payable and Payable Growth Rates .................11
Figure 8: Dividend Growth Rate and Number of Annual Increases – Last 5 Years ......12
Figure 9: Mortgage and Specialty Finance Valuation Table ...15

 

Partly in response to the favorable tax legislation passed on dividends in the second
quarter, several companies under our coverage significantly increased their dividends in
the second and third quarters, including cumulative increases by IndyMac (up 88%),
Countrywide Financial (up 51%), Fidelity National (up 50%), MGIC (up 50%), PMI (up
50%), Sallie Mae (up 36%), Washington Mutual (up 35%), American Express (up 25%),
and MBNA (up 25%). With all but IndyMac still yielding below 1%, there is significant
room for further increases from these high growth companies, but we point out that high
growth companies typically have low payouts as capital is used to grow the business.
In our universe of stocks, we have one stock yielding more than 4%, two between 3%
and 4%, and another seven between 2% and 3%, with the remainder yielding below
2%. This compares to an average dividend yield for the financials sector of 2.5% at the
end of 2002. By contrast, average yields for low growth sectors like utilities were 4.6%
at the end of 2002, while yields in high growth sectors like technology averaged 0.3%
at the end of 2002.
The average ROE in our group is 23.4%, while the average tangible equity to tangible
assets ratio is 15.1% or 7.1% excluding the capital-intensive title and mortgage insurers.
With payout ratios averaging just 24%, plenty of excess equity and returns on equity that……

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