中国经济完全指南(pdf 28页)(英文)

for the economy: growth staying near trend, profit margins
troughing, no sharp inventory buildup or excessive
unemployment pressures. We see three reasons behind this
forecast: (1) policy tightening was selective, aimed mostly at
specific sectors rather than at the economy as a whole, and
the authorities have actually been easing over the past
quarters; (2) consumption and export demand are still very
strong; (3) profit and margin pressures are only a significant
problem in a few industries, and the investment recovery next
year should help reduce pain.

Medium-term growth outlook. We give the government
relatively strong marks for managing the current cycle well,
and for beginning to resolve problems in the banking system.
Rural income growth has also surprised on the upside, profit
indicators look all right, and domestic saving rates remain
high. All of these factors point to continued high growth in
the medium term. As a result, we expect average real GDP
growth of 8% to 8.5% over the next five to ten years. Of
course growth could fall below this level on a cyclical basis –
but we don’t see a strong possibility for a repeat of 1997-98,
when (by our estimates) the economy was only growing at
2% or 3% at the trough.

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