中国电信公司研究(pdf 36页)(英文)

Examining the impact of wireless data &
Internet on listed telcos
! Quantifying impact of new wireless data & BB numbers
We have taken all of our new 2.5G data estimates (MMS, WAP, Java games) as
well as the newer 2G services (IVR, CRBT) and modelled the effect on the telcos.
We also examine new data on broadband. We argue that 2.5G is very important
for telco revenues: by 2007, we estimate only 5% of handset should be 3G, but
45% should be 2.5G.
! China Mobile—We raise DCF due to success with 2.5G data
For China Mobile, we have raised our forecasts slightly, and our DCF by 4%. Our
new forecasts are mainly raised post-2006, but this affects our current DCF. The
main difference relates to the higher of our 2.5G data and the lower of our SMS
subscription estimates. As a result our target price is raised from HK$23.75 to
HK$24.75.
! China Unicom—Lack of GSM 2.5G network a strong negative
Our 2006 estimates for China Unicom are currently 15% below consensus, and
our new modelling supports this call. Our biggest concern is the company is not
building out a 2.5G network on GSM, or where the majority of its subscribers are.
Also, its peer-to-peer SMS tariffs fell 48% in 2003, which we believe is alarming.
! China Telecom—Internet games, SMS & broadband are positives
In this report, we release national broadband estimates, which appear positive for
China Telecom and support our bullish call on the company. We expect the boom
in Internet gaming, which will drive broadband demand, to benefit China
Telecom. Also, although we have not modelled SMS revenues, we note its users
can now use SMS with China Mobile in some cities.
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