德意志银行-土耳其展望(英文)(pdf 11页)

Turkey has in the past suffered from high levels of macroeconomic instability.
Over the last ten years average economic growth has been modest.
Sustained economic reform following the 2000-01 economic crisis has
however improved the outlook for economic stability and higher medium-term
economic growth significantly.
• The continuation of macroeconomic discipline and structural reform is likely to
be driven by the prospect of EU accession. The agreement reached between
the EU and Turkey regarding the start of accession negotiations in October
2005 is the first step in that direction. Risks of setbacks stem from both sides,
however.
• This study is to depict plausible scenarios for the Turkish economy in the
medium to long term, rather than predict at what point in time accession will
actually take place.
• In our baseline scenario, medium-term real GDP growth of a good 4% on
average over the next 10 to 15 years is realistic, according to DB Research’s
proprietary long-term growth model (Formel-G).
• While the continuation of economic reforms appears to be the most likely
scenario, it is not, however, a foregone conclusion. Domestic political
cleavages, setbacks on the IMF front and geo-political developments could
yet undermine the upbeat economic outlook. We present two downside
scenarios to account for this possibility.
• If Turkey realises its growth potential over……
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