2005年中国的投资主题（pdf 12）

A long pipeline for price adjustments
China plans to raise prices in seven tightly controlled industries in 2005-06, with
the exact sequence centrally managed in order to keep inflation low. We expect
the first such adjustment on coal prices in November 2004, followed by gasoline
and diesel (possibly in Q105), railway services (Q2-Q305), port handling, water &
gas, state-owned enterprise (SOE) wages, and finally, electricity.
! Coal price: The first test of deregulation
The government practises regular intervention to keep coal prices down. Some
backlash was experienced in April when several coalmines refused to honour
contracts they had reluctantly signed in January. However, we expect less
government intervention in the 2005 contract negotiation.
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