最新摩根斯坦利中国投资研究(pdf 68页)(英文版)

     More headwinds to property sector: The central government’s latest property-control guidelines raised questions as to how the following quantitative measures would be executed at the local level: 1) Over 70% of new developed flats must be below 90sm; 2) land bank will be taken back without compensation if left idle for two years; 3) downpayment will increase to 30%; 20% will only apply to flats below 90sm.
    In the past two weeks, the Shenzhen municipal government has said that it would strictly adhere to the new regulations, requiring all new projects, including those developments already licensed to start construction, to comply with the
“70%/90sm” rule.
     Meanwhile, officials from the Ministry of Construction say they are considering setting price limits on small apartments below 90sqm. Xinhua news agency also mentioned that SAFE may implement some anti-speculation measures against foreign investors near term to curb ‘hot money’ participation in the
property market.
     Comment: Though it may take time, we believe the local governments will implement all of the central government’s measures. Shenzhen is executing on the 70%/90 sqm rule exactly as requested.
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