MorganStanleyTCL分析报告英文(pdf 6页)

Quick Comment: TCL Communications (2868.HK, not rated) has announced that itsOctober shipment fell 28.3% MoM, due largely to TCL Mobile. TCL Mobile’s Octobershipment deteriorated after improving in September.TCL’s total monthly shipment was 366,264 in October, down 47.5% YoY and47.3% MoM. The shipment is by far the lowest since February 2002. It also lags thefirst nine-month 2004 average shipment by 46.9%. At its third-quarter announcement,the company expected the fourth-quarter shipment to pick up following an inventoryadjustment. However, recent updates from the company show that management nowexpects the inventory adjustment period to be longer than it assumed previously.According to TCL, its channel inventory is still 20% above normal, in line with thatof the overall Chinese handset market. In addition, TCL says it has recently launcheddistribution reforms in an attempt to flatten the distribution structure and increaseretailers’ direct involvement, which may have caused some disruption in sales initially.
The company expects the distribution channel reform to yield results in three to sixmonths’ time. The company expects its 4Q04 shipment to remain at around the 3Q04level or lower, depending on recovery in the Chinese handset market.The TCL-Alcatel JV saw a shipment decline, but expects an improvement in 4Q04.The TCL-Alcatel JV, TAMP, started operation in September this year. The JV reportedthat its October shipment also dropped 5.1% to 542,839 units. However,management isconfident that the 4Q04 shipment will exceed 3Q04’s level, given the seasonally strongNovember sales due to Christmas orders and less reliance on the China handset marketcurrently. The company expects the JV’s November shipment to grow at high-doubledigitrates.
Our view on China’s Technology sector is In-Line.
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