Oracle应用系统发展势头强劲分析(doc 10页)(英文版)

Oracle应用系统发展势头强劲分析内容提要：
Both SAP and PSFT made disappointing pre-announcements last week
indicating their results for Q3 would be weaker than
analysts expected.  Final results for both companies were release within
the past two days.
In SAP reported final Q3 numbers in line with pre-announced results of
(7%) total revenue growth and (26%) pure license growth.  Analyst agreed
the revisions were significant and the potential for further downside is
greater than the likelihood of any upside in the near-term.  The
US-based business continues to struggle, with moderate improvement in
the Asia/Pacific region.  The primary surprise for the quarter came from
higher-than-expected operating expenses as SAP continues to invest
heavily in R&D and marketing to support its newly launched "internet
strategy".  Average revenue per new sale fell significantly as a result
of increased mid-market sales, incremental sales to the installed base,
lower priced add-ons, and more prospects buying in smaller chunks.  The
overwhelming consensus among the analysts for SAP is an environment
characterized by a number of challenges, including a tough macroeconomic
situation, continued salesforce attrition (especially in the U.S.), and
a complicated and late transition in an effort to become an
internet-enabled back- and front-office application provider.
Furthermore, analysts expressed concern with the fundamental trend of
SAP's decreasing high-margin license revenue coupled with their
increasing low-margin consulting revenue.  The consensus following
management's comments was predominantly characterized as cautiously
uncertain, with no clearly available catalyst to generate near-term
interest in the stock.
PSFT's reported Q3 results were in line with the recent downwardly
revised guidance given in the Company's October 11th
pre-release.  License revenue for the quarter was down 67% year over
year, with management attributing the shortfall to the
continued soft demand for PSFT's core back-office applications,
especially in the U.S. marketplace.  Two noted concerns
among a number of analysts include issues surrounding PSFT's lack of
competitiveness in a shift to a e-business driven
marketplace as well as PSFT's inability to retain talented individuals.
The hard-to-answer question remains the timing for a
potential recovery as PSFT shifts its product base towards e-business
solutions and eventually integrates front-office supplier.
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