SAS在市场研究数据挖掘中的应用(pdf 713页)(英文)

Contents
Marketing Research: Uncovering CompetITive Advantages 15
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Perceptual Mapping . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 16
Conjoint Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22
Software . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26
Introducing the Market Research Analysis Application 27
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Conjoint Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 27
Discrete Choice Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . 30
Correspondence Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . 32
Multidimensional Preference Analysis . . . . . . . . . . 35
Multidimensional Scaling . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36
Summary . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Acknowledgements . . . . . . . . . . . . . 38
Efficient Experimental Design wITh Marketing Research Applications 39
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39
Design of Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41
Design Comparisons . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 45
Design Considerations . . . . . . . . . . . . . 47
Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51
5
6 CONTENTS
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56
A General Method for Constructing Efficient Choice Designs 61
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 61
CrITeria For Choice Design Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . 62
A General Method For Efficient Choice Designs . . . . . . . . . 64
Choice Design Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . 65
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74
Appendix . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 76
Discrete Choice 81
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81
PreliminarIEs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 84
Experimental Design Terminology . . . . . . . . . . 84
Experimental Design Efficiency . . . . . . . . . . . . 86
Conjoint, Linear, and Choice Designs . . . . . . . . . . . 87
Efficiency of a Choice Design . . . . . . . . . . . 88
Canonical Correlations . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
Coding, Efficiency, Balance, and OrthogonalITy . . . . . . . . . 91
Customizing the Multinomial LogIT Output . . . . . . . . . 95
Candy Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96
The Multinomial LogIT Model . . . . . . . . . . . 96
The Input Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 98
Choice and Survival Models . . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Fitting the Multinomial LogIT Model . . . . . . . . . . . 101
Multinomial LogIT Model Results . . . . . . . . . . . 102
Fitting the Multinomial LogIT Model, All Levels . . . . . . . . . 104
ProbabilITy of Choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 106
Fabric Softener Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
Set Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108
CONTENTS 7
Designing the Choice Experiment . . . . . . . . . . . 110
Examining the Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112
Randomizing the Design, Postprocessing . . . . . . . . . 114
Generating the Questionnaire . . . . . . . . . . . 116
Entering the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
Processing the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 118
binary Coding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122
Fitting the Multinomial LogIT Model . . . . . . . . . . . 124
Multinomial LogIT Model Results . . . . . . . . . . . 125
ProbabilITy of Choice . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126
Custom Questionnaires . . . . . . . . . . . . . 128
Processing the Data for Custom Questionnaires . . . . . . . . . 132
Vacation Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 134
Set Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135
Designing the Choice Experiment . . . . . . . . . . . 138
The %MktEx Macro AlgorIThm . . . . . . . . . . . . 142
Examining the Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . 144
Generating the Questionnaire . . . . . . . . . . . 152
Entering and Processing the Data . . . . . . . . . . . 154
binary Coding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 158
QuantITative Price Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . 163
Quadratic Price Effect . . . . . . . . . . . . . 165
Effects Coding . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 168
Alternative-Specific Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . 171
Vacation Example, wITh Alternative-Specific Attributes . . . . . . . 178
Choosing the Number of Choice Sets . . . . . . . . . . . 179
Designing the Choice Experiment . . . . . . . . . . . 181
Ensuring that Certain Key Interactions are Estimable . . . . . . . 182
Examining the Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . 189
Blocking an Existing Design . . . . . . . . . . . . 191
Generating the Questionnaire . . . . . . . . . . . 193
Generating Artificial Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 195
8 CONTENTS
Reading, Processing, and Analyzing the Data . . . . . . . . 197
Aggregating the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 202
Brand Choice Example wITh Aggregate Data . . . . . . . . . 205
Processing the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 205
Simple Price Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 207
Alternative-Specific Price Effects . . . . . . . . . . . 209
Mother LogIT Model . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 212
Aggregating the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 220
Choice and Breslow Likelihood Comparison . . . . . . . . . 226
Food Product Example wITh Asymmetry and AvailabilITy Cross Effects . . 228
The Multinomial LogIT Model . . . . . . . . . . . 228
Set Up . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 229
Designing the Choice Experiment . . . . . . . . . . . 231
When You Have a Long Time to Search for an Efficient Design . . . . . . 236
Examining the Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . 237
Designing the Choice Experiment, More Choice Sets . . . . . . . . 240
Examining the Subdesigns . . . . . . . . . . . . . 245
Examining the Aliasing Structure . . . . . . . . . . . 246
Blocking the Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 248
The Final Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 251
Testing the Design Before Data Collection . . . . . . . . . . 256
Generating Artificial Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . 267
Processing the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 269
Cross Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 270
Multinomial LogIT Model Results . . . . . . . . . . . 271
Modeling Subject Attributes . . . . . . . . . . . 274
Allocation of Prescription Drugs . . . . . . . . . . . 284
Designing the Allocation Experiment . . . . . . . . . . . 284
Processing the Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 290
Coding and Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 296
Multinomial LogIT Model Results . . . . . . . . . . . 297
Analyzing Proportions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 299
CONTENTS 9
Chair Design wITh Generic Attributes . . . . . . . . . . 303
Generic Attributes, Alternative Swapping, Large Candidate Set . . . . . . 304
Generic Attributes, Alternative Swapping, Small Candidate Set . . . . . . 310
Generic Attributes, a Constant Alternative, and Alternative Swapping . . . . 314
Generic Attributes, a Constant Alternative, and Choice Set Swapping . . . . 318
Design AlgorIThm Comparisons . . . . . . . . . . . . 322
InITial Designs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 323
Improving an Existing Design . . . . . . . . . . . 323
When Some Choice Sets are Fixed in Advance . . . . . . . . . 325
Partial Profiles and Restrictions . . . . . . . . . . . . 331
Pair-wise Partial Profile Choice Design . . . . . . . . . . 331
Linear Partial Profile Design . . . . . . . . . . . 335
Choice from Triples; Partial Profiles Constructed Using Restrictions . . . . . 337
Multinomial LogIT Models 345
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 345
Modeling Discrete Choice Data . . . . . . . . . . . . 347
FITting Discrete Choice Models . . . . . . . . . . . . 348
Cross-Alternative Effects . . . . . . . . . . . . 353
Final Comments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 358
Conjoint Analysis 361
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
Conjoint Measurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . 361
Conjoint Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 362
Choice-Based Conjoint . . . . . . . . . . . . . 363
PreliminarIEs . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364
Design of Experiments . . . . . . . . . . . . . 364
The Output Delivery System . . . . . . . . . . . 366
Chocolate Candy Example . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369
10 CONTENTS
Metric Conjoint Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 369
Nonmetric Conjoint Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . 372
Frozen DIEt Entr´ees Example (Basic) . . . . . . . . . . 376
Choosing the Number of Stimuli . . . . . . . . . . . 376
Generating the Design . . . . . . . . . . . . . 378
Evaluating and Preparing the Design . . . . . . . . . . . 379
Printing the Stimuli and Data Collection . . . . . . . . . 381
Data Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 383
Nonmetric Conjoint Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . 385
Frozen DIEt Entr´ees Example (Advanced) . . . . . . . . . . 389
Creating a Design wITh the %MktEx Macro . . . . . . . . . 389
Designing Holdouts . . . . . . . . . . . . . 391
Print the Stimuli . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 396
Data Collection, Entry, and Preprocessing . . . . . . . . . . 397
Metric Conjoint Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 402
Analyzing Holdouts . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 417
Simulations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 419
Summarizing Results Across Subjects . . . . . . . . . . 423
Spaghetti Sauce . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 431
Create an Efficient Experimental Design wITh the %MktEx Macro . . . . 431
Generating the Questionnaire . . . . . . . . . . . 439
Data Processing . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 443
Metric Conjoint Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . 444
Simulating Market Share . . . . . . . . . . . . 448
Simulating Market Share, Maximum UtilITy Model . . . . . . . 451
Simulating Market Share, Bradley-Terry-Luce and LogIT Models . . . . . 457
Change in Market Share . . . . . . . . . . . . 458
PROC TRANSREG Specifications . . . . . . . . . . 467
PROC TRANSREG Statement . . . . . . . . . . . . 467
AlgorIThm Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . 468
Output Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 469
Transformations and Expansions . . . . . . . . . . . 470
CONTENTS 11
Transformation Options . . . . . . . . . . . . 472
BY Statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473
ID Statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 473
WEIGHT Statement . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 474
Monotone, Spline, and Monotone Spline Comparisons . . . . . . . 474
Samples of PROC TRANSREG Usage . . . . . . . . . . 476
Metric Conjoint Analysis wITh Rating-Scale Data . . . . . . . . 476
Nonmetric Conjoint Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . 476
Monotone Splines . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 477
Constraints on the UtilITIEs . . . . . . . . . . . . 477
A Discontinuous Price Function . . . . . . . . . . . . 478
Experimental Design and Choice Modeling Macros 479
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 479
Installation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 480
%ChoicEff Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 481
%ChoicEff Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . 506
%ChoicEff Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . 511
%MktAllo Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 512
%MktAllo Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . 513
%MktAllo Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . 514
%MktBal Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 515
%MktBal Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . 516
%MktBal Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 517
%MktBlock Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 518
%MktBlock Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . 524
%MktBlock Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 526
%MktDes Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 527
%MktDes Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . 528
%MktDes Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 533
%MktDups Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 534
12 CONTENTS
%MktDups Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . 539
%MktDups Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . 541
%MktEval Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 542
%MktEval Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . 544
%MktEval Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . 545
%MktEx Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 546
%MktEx Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 550
%MktEx Macro ITeration History . . . . . . . . . . . 552
%MktEx Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . 554
Advanced Restrictions . . . . . . . . . . . . . 566
%MktKey Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 576
%MktKey Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . 576
%MktLab Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 577
%MktLab Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . 585
%MktLab Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . 587
%MktMerge Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 588
%MktMerge Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . 588
%MktMerge Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . 589
%MktOrth Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 590
%MktOrth Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . 593
%MktOrth Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . 594
%MktRoll Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 595
%MktRoll Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . . 598
%MktRoll Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . 599
%MktRuns Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 600
%MktRuns Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . 604
%MktRuns Macro Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . 605
%PhChoice Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 606
%PhChoice Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . 609
%PlotIT Macro . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 611
%PlotIT Macro Options . . . . . . . . . . . . 618
Macro Errors . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 641
CONTENTS 13
Linear Models and Conjoint Analysis wITh Nonlinear Spline Transformations 643
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 643
Why Use Nonlinear Transformations? . . . . . . . . . . 643
Background and History . . . . . . . . . . . . 644
The General Linear Univariate Model . . . . . . . . . . 644
Polynomial Splines . . . . . . . . . . . . . 645
Splines wITh Knots . . . . . . . . . . . . . 646
Derivatives of a Polynomial Spline . . . . . . . . . . 648
Discontinuous Spline Functions . . . . . . . . . . . . 649
Monotone Splines and B-Splines . . . . . . . . . . . 651
Transformation Regression . . . . . . . . . . . . . 652
Degrees of Freedom . . . . . . . . . . . . . 653
Dependent Variable Transformations . . . . . . . . . . . 654
Scales of Measurement . . . . . . . . . . . . . 654
Conjoint Analysis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 655
Curve FITting Applications . . . . . . . . . . . . 655
Spline Functions of Price . . . . . . . . . . . . 657
BenefITs of Splines . . . . . . . . . . . . . 660
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 660
Graphical Scatter Plots of Labeled Points 661
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 661
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 661
An OvervIEw of the %PlotIT Macro . . . . . . . . . . 662
Examples . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 663
AvailabilITy . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 672
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 674
Graphical Methods for Marketing Research 675
Abstract . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 675
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 675
Methods . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 676
14 CONTENTS
Notes . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 686
Conclusions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 687
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