中国的投资与储蓄（pdf 19）

Abstract
An analysis of sectoral patterns of investment and saving in China—over time and
compared to other countries—sheds light on the factors driving high investment and on
how saving is channeled into investment. Key findings include: (i) investment by
enterprises distinguishes China from other countries and explains most of the variation
over time; (ii) high household saving explains only a part of the large difference in
national saving between China and other countries—the majority is explained by high
saving of the government and enterprises (through retained earnings); and (iii) currently
only about one-third of enterprise investment is financed via the financial sector, a lower
share than in the early 1990s. Explanations behind the high saving of the government and
enterprises are traced back. There are several policy implications. The identified
financing patterns put in perspective the exposure of the financial sector to investmentrelated
risks but, against the background of concerns about suboptimal allocation of
capital, bring to the fore corporate governance and dividend policy. The findings suggest
policy adjustments that would help achieving the government’s goals of improving the
quality of growth and increasing the role of consumption. Finally, long term saving
prospects, and its implications, are discussed.
Keywords: Investment; saving; financing; demographics, corporate governance, China.
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