汽车行业投资策略(pdf 19页)
目 录
一、继续快速增长的中国汽车行业...................................................................3
二、中国已经成为全球汽车增长的主要动力....................................................4
三、盈利继续回升............................................................................................6
1. 销售仍将保持较快增长.............................................................................................6
2. 降价压力趋缓,材料成本下降,利润率水平有望企稳..............................................7
四、整车细分行业前瞻.....................................................................................8
1.乘用车:轿车引领增长............................................................................................8
2.商用车:重卡有望延续复苏势头..............................................................................8
五、全球化格局下的中国汽车零配件产业......................................................10
六、投资策略.................................................................................................12
1.汽车板块有比较估值优势,给予“推荐”评级...........................................................12
2.策略选择:低估值+可持续成长.............................................................................13
3.重点推荐公司简评..................................................................................................14
长安汽车(000625) ......................................................................................................... 14
一汽夏利(000927) ......................................................................................................... 14
上海汽车(600104) ......................................................................................................... 14
中国重汽(000951) ......................................................................................................... 15
湘火炬(000549) ............................................................................................................. 15
宇通客车(600066) ......................................................................................................... 15
威孚高科(000581) ......................................................................................................... 15
江铃汽车(000550) ......................................................................................................... 15
附件1:国际估值比较...................................................................................16
附件2:细分子行业1~10 月销售数据...........................................................18
附件3:部分上市公司1~10 月销售数据........................................................18
一、继续快速增长的中国汽车行业
虽然饱受高油价困扰,06 年国内汽车销售依然强劲,1~10 月销售汽车577 万辆,同比增
长了26%,相对05 年14%的增长率和04 年16%的增长率,06 年汽车市场表现再度令人
惊艳。
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