电网物资仓库规模预测与布局选址规划研究(PDF 91页）

摘要．I
ABSTRACT．III
第一章绪论．1
1．1课题背景、目的和意义．1
1．1．1课题背景．．1
1．1．2研究目的和意义1
1．2预测及选址研究现状。2
1．2．1需求预测理论的研究现状．．2
1．2．2选址布局规划的研究现状．．3
1．3研究内容和结构安排4
第二章相关理论知识．7
2．1电力需求预测方法7
2．1．1常用电力需求预测方法．7
2．1．2计量经济模型。1 1
2．2仓库选址布局相关理论14
2．2．1选址建模方法．14
2．2．2选址求解方法20
2．3电网物资分类及分级存储。23
2．3．1电网物资分类概述．．23
2．3．2电网物资分级存储概况．．24
2．4本章小结．25
第三章电网物资仓库规模预测27
3．1预测的方法和步骤。27
3．1．1预测的思路和方法．．27
3．1．2预测模型相关量的选择．28
3．1．3仓库规模预测步骤．29
3．2某市用电量现状分析和预测。30
3．2．1用电量现状30
3．2．2各区、镇供电所用电量预测．32
山东大学硕十学位论文
．2．2．1数据的搜集和整理．32
．2．2．2相关性分析．33
．2．2．3回归方程的建立与用电量预测．35
电网物资需求预测。37
1分区电网物资需求预测37
2各镇供电所物资需求预测38
电网物资仓库规模规划．．39
l一级仓库规模计算39
2二级仓库规模计算．．40
，J、结．．43
网物资仓库布局与选址．．45
仓库存在的问题45
选址的原则和目标．．45
模型的建立和求解．．46
问题描述．46
模型建立47
模型求解．．48
应用．．49
4．5结果的评价和调整．．53
4．6本章小结56
第五章总结和展望．．57
附录．．59
附表一该市各区历年经济数据和用电量59
附图二各自变量与因变量散点图．．61
附表三各区需求点距离表64
附录四选址求解过程核心代码66
参考文献．69
致{射。73
攻读硕士学位期间发表的学术论文．75
II
山东大学硕十学位论文
CONTENTS
AbstractI
English Abstract．．III
Chapter 1 Introduction1
1．1Research Background、Objective and Significance。l
1．1．1ResearchBackground．1
1．1．2 Objective and Significance2
1．2 Research Status of Forecast and Location．．2
1．2．1 Research status of Demand Forecasting．2
1．2．2 Research Status of Location and Layout．3
1．3 Research Comems and Structure．4
Chapter 2 Background Theory7
2．1 Power Demand Forecasting Methods7
2．1．1 Common Methods．7
2．1．2 Econometrical Model．1 l
2．2 Warehouse Location and Layout Theory．．14
2．2．1 Location Modeling Method14
2．2．2 Location Solutions．．20
2．3 Classification and HIErarchy Storage of Power Grid Materials23
2．3．1 Classification of Power Grid Materials23
2．3．2 HIErarchy Storage ofPower Grid Materials．．24
2．4 Chapter Summary．25
Chapter 3 Power Grid Material Warehouse Scale Forecast．．27
3．1 Method and Process．27
3．1．1 Ideas and Method．27
3．1．2 Relevant QuantITIEs Selection of Forecasting Model28
3．1．3 Forecasting Process29
3．2 Electricity Consumption Present CondITion and Forecast30
3．2．1 Electricity Consumption Present CondITion．．30
3．2．2 Electricity Consumption Forecast32
3．2．2．1 Data Collection and Classification32
3．2．2．2 Correlation Analysis．33
3．2．2．3 Regression EQuation and Forecast．35
山东大学硕十学位论文
3．3 Power Grid Material Demand Forecast37
3．3．1 Demand Forecast ofEach Region37
3．3．2 Demand Forecast of Each Town38
3．4 Warehouse Scale Planning．．39
3．4．1 Warehouse Scale Planning ofLevel One．39
3．4．2 Warehouse Scale Planning of Level Two．40
3．5 Chapter Summary．．43
Chapter 4 Power Grid Material Warehouse Location．45
4．1 Problems of Existing Warehouses．45
4．2 Principles and Objectives．．45
4．3 Modeling and Solving．46
4．3．1 Description．．46
4．3．2 Modeling。47
4．3．3 Solving48
4．4 Example．．49
4．5 Evaluation and Adjustment．．53
4．6 Chapter Summary．．56
Chapter 5 Conclusion and Future Work．57
Appendix59
Appendix 1 Data·59
Appendix 2 Scatter diagram·61
Appendix 3 Distances··64
Appendix 4 Main Code··66
References．69
Acknowledgements．．73
Publications．．75
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