全球地面交通的投资回报分析（英文版）.pdf80

We revIEw investment returns for global surface transport sTOCks
In this report, we compare historical and forecast return on EQuITy and
return on invested capITal for the 44 largest sTOCks in our global
universe as addITional metrics to use when valuing our sTOCks.
• Surface Transport beat its cost of capITal over five years, on our analysis
Overall, the industry’s 9% return on capITal is ahead of the current
rEQuired rate of return of 6.5%, on our estimates, due mostly to the
performance of non-asset-based companIEs. We estimate return on
EQuITy for surface transport sTOCks averages near 13%.
• Non-asset-based companies achIEved the best returns
The best results are achieved by non-asset-based companIEs (termed
“logistics” in some parts of the world), wITh 14% ROCE and mid 20s
ROE. The asset intensive and cyclical segments – Shipping, Railways
and Trucking – reached a return on capITal of only 6%, on our analysis.
• CompanIEs wITh premium returns are awarded premium multiples
There is a strong link between excess returns and entERPrise-value-TOCapITal-
employed multiples, wITh the market awarding a significant
premium to the best performing companies. Companies and industrIEs
that reverse historically low returns can be attractive investments.
• Structural changes in margins and returns can create significant value
We think FedEx is a good example of a company that has the prospect
of generating higher returns over the next cycle than the last, following
management’s efforts to make the company less capITal intensive.
• Cyclical recovery in returns undERPins our posITive stance on container shipping
We expect a cyclical recovery in returns in container shipping driven
by volume growth and customer rate hikes. Among Asian carrIErs, our
best idea is Neptune Orient Lines. Other Overweight-rated companIEs
are CP Ships, Wan Hai Lines and MITsui OSK Lines.
• Industry vIEws
Detailed industry vIEws for all
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