2005年出版的和广告的展望(pdf 40)

Publishing: Companies With Strong Niche Products And LocalAdvertising Should Lead The Industry In 2005 ................................5
Advertising: The Advertising Recovery That Took Shape In 2004 Should Continue Through 2005 With A 5.0% Increase In Global Advertising Revenue ...........................8
The Publishing Industry: Valuation And Performance..................... 11
Expensing Of Stock Options And Impact On Earnings .................... 14
December Company News (Prudential Equity Group Comments In Italics) ....... 15
Newspaper Industry Analysis ............. 16
Economic And Industry Trends ........... 19
Newsprint Analysis ........................... 22
Television Industry Analysis ............... 23
Figure 1 Stock Performance Versus The S&P 500:
December 2004 And Year To Date ....... 12
Figure 2 Monthly Industry Review ..................... 13
Figure 3 Impact Of Expensing Of Stock Options On Earnings Per Share .......... 14
Figure 4 Change In Linage - November 2004 Versus November 2003............ 16
Figure 5 Newspaper Advertising Revenue – November 2004 Versus
November 2003 ................................. 17
Figure 6 Newspaper Advertising Revenue Growth Rates,
April-November 2004.......................... 17
Figure 7 Upcoming Comparisons: December Comparable Revenue Growth...... 18
Figure 8 Consumer Confidence Index, December 1992-December 2004 ......... 19
Figure 9 Initial Claims For Unemployment Insurance, Long- And
Short-Term Comparisons ..................... 20
Figure 10 National Help Wanted Index ................. 21
Figure 11 Newsprint Price Per Tonne, 1994-2005E......... 22
Figure 12 Potential Effect On Earnings Of A $50 Change In Newsprint Price ..... 22
Figure 13 Political Television Advertising Revenue,
January 2004-November 2004, Select Companies.......................... 23
Figure 14 Cash Flow Growth Forecasts By Business Line, 2004E..................... 23
Figure 15 The Prudential Equity Group, LLC Publishing And Advertising
Universe .......... 24
Figure 16 Stock Performance Since December 2002 ....... 25
Figure 17 Adjusted Enterprise Value to EBITDA ....... 26
Figure 18 Price-To-Earnings Valuation.................. 27
Figure 19 Price-To-After-Tax Cash Flow............... 28
Figure 20 Belo Corp – Monthly Publishing Revenue Comparisons,
January 2003-November 2004............. 29
Figure 21 Dow Jones – Monthly Advertising Linage Comparisons,
January 2003-November 2004............. 29
Figure 22 Gannett Co. – Monthly Publishing Advertising Revenue
Comparisons, January 2003-November 2004.................................. 30
Figure 23 Journal Register – Monthly Publishing Advertising Revenue
Comparisons, January 2003-November 2004.................................. 30
Figure 24 Knight Ridder – Monthly Publishing Advertising Revenue
Comparisons, January 2003-November 2004.................................. 31
Figure 25 Lee Enterprises – Monthly Publishing Advertising Revenue
Comparisons, May 2003-November 2004........ 31
Figure 26 The McClatchy Co. – Monthly Publishing Advertising Revenue
Comparisons, January 2003-November 2004.................................. 32
Figure 27 Media General – Monthly Publishing Advertising Revenue
Comparisons, January 2003-November 2004.................................. 32
Figure 28 The New York Times Co. – Monthly Publishing Advertising
Revenue Comparisons, January 2003-November 2004..................... 33
Figure 29 Pulitzer Inc. – Monthly Publishing Advertising Revenue
Comparisons, January 2003-November 2004.................................. 33
Figure 30 Scripps (E.W.) – Monthly Publishing Advertising Revenue
Comparisons, January 2003-November 2004.................................. 34
Figure 31 Tribune Co. – Monthly Publishing Advertising Revenue
Comparisons, January 2003-November 2004.................................. 34

    2005 Publishing And Advertising Forecasts
    This month we are providing our 2005 industry forecasts for both the
publishing and advertising sectors. In the publishing sector, what we see as
probable operating headwinds in part of the advertising market should make
meaningful upside from our current estimates unlikely. Combined with
valuation levels—which on average are hovering at neither particularly
expensive nor enticingly cheap levels—publishing stocks on the whole should
not outperform the broader market this year. In the advertising industry, we
maintain our Favorable industry outlook despite the lack of “Quadrennial
Factors,” and expect the advertising stocks to outpace the performance of
the overall market.
    The expensing of stock options is scheduled to take effect on July 1, 2005.
On page 14, we provide a table detailing the impact expensing stock options
could have on each company’s earnings for 2004 compared to 2003.
    The S&P 500 gained almost 9.0% in 2004, but our group performed poorly

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