南方航空（MorganStanley2003q3)(PDF 16页)

Raising earnings and price target to HK$2.27 but keeping Underweight-V
Our new target is based on price/book value of 0.9 for our estimate for
2004, a discount of 20% to the average multiple for Asia/Pacific
airlines.
• CSA’s results for 3Q03 were solid, in our view
CSA reported 3Q03 net earnings (under Chinese accounting standards)
of Rmb382 million, which should be in line with market expectation.
• Good traffic growth and firm unit revenues
Strong 3Q03 results were underpinned mainly by the sharp rebound in
domestic passenger traffic, which rose 15% YoY, and firm unit
revenue (flat YoY), helped partly by the temporary suspension of
Infrastructure Development Fund (IDF).
• We reiterate our Cautious view on China’s Airline industry
Major concerns include expensive valuation, deteriorating industry
supply/demand imbalance, and potential negative demand shock
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