工程项目风险管理与保险概述(PPT 36页)

The Tools and Methodologies of Risk Analysis
Contents of Risk Analysis
Analysis of risk event evolution
Event tree analysis case
Probability Methods
Using the existing data analysis risk event probability distribution
The construction period delay data statistics
Time limit for a project delay distribution experience
Estimate the construction period delay event probability
Theory of probability distribution is used to determine the probability of risk events
The probability of risk events using subjective probability analysis
Experts to the evaluation order of different projects
Different targets cannot be the winning probability calculation ：
Analogy method to calculate the risk probability, hydrologic analogy method
Bayes Methods-基本步骤
Bayes Methods-贝叶斯定理
Bayes Methods-优缺点
Bayes Methods-案例
..............................