10大战略性技术(ppt 16页)

This presentation highlights technologies that will enjoy a significant maturation in the 18 to 36 month timeframe. This will clear up technical and other issues that limit applicability. The time will see the risks more clearly identified and in most cases reduced. Most of the technologies have existed in some form already, but will become suitable for a much wider range of uses.
For some, such as speech recognition, we will split potential uses into categories, only some of which will become mature in this timeframe. By focusing on those categories that will be appropriate for exploitation, high value can be extracted from the technology without waiting for the full and final maturation of all its aspects and applications.
This view of maturity is based on the Gartner concept of the hype cycle — that every technology and new idea is subject to distinct phases in its progress from first elucidation to widespread market adoption. The cycle moves from the trigger or disclosure up to a peak of inflated expectations as the concept is widely discussed. Once actual use commences, the early adopters discover issues and incur failures — demonstrating that the appropriate use was poorly understood. The bad news drives an overreaction to the through of disillusionment until the real results can be sorted into best practices, pitfalls and so forth. The outcome is a climb to maturity where the new concept is well understood — for what roles and how to best implement.
Enterprises should not blindly wait for every technology to become mature. In some cases, the potential rewards for first use are so powerful that they warrant reasonable or even high risks from probing into the unknown. When a technology offers a dramatic advantage and the organization is well suited to moderate to high levels of risk, then it is wholly justified to leap into a technology while it is still early in the hype cycle.
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