MS汽车行业报告英文版(pdf 19页)

• 2002 was the year of surprise
2002 surprised everyone on the upside. Industry unit sales increased
37% while unit sales in the sedan market grew 56%. 2002 was the
start of a significant secular move by the auto industry, in our opinion,
triggered by China’s WTO entry.
• 2003 is the year of increased expectations
Deeper deregulation, including tariff cuts, increased quotas, and the
opening up of auto finance are pushing China onto the global track in
2003. We expect domestic sedan unit sales to grow a further 35% and
average auto prices to fall 10-15%. This is based on our estimate of a
30% YoY addition in sedan capacity in 2003.
• Strong growth to continue in the next few years
China’s auto market was closed for almost half a century. We believe
that a step toward satisfying domestic demand, restrained by the lack
of product choices and auto finance, and expensive automobile prices
and licensing costs, was taken in 2002. We conservatively estimate
immediate pent-up demand at 15 million sedans for urban families, in
contrast to only 1.1 million unit sales of sedans in 2002.
• Pitching the global market in the long term
We believe that, in the long term, China has the potential to put
downward pressure on prices in the global auto industry. However, in
view of the sophistication of the global auto industry, China is likely to
need more than a few years to scale up and become mature, in both
upstream and downstream areas. Eventually, as we have seen in so
many other industries, cost advantage is likely to give China a decent
share of the global market. We reiterate our Overweight-V rating on
Brilliance China Automotive (1114.HK, HK$1.82, TP HK$2.90) and
Equal-Weight-V rating on Denway Motors (0203.HK, HK$3, TP
HK$3.10).
• We reiterate our In-Line view on the China Automobile industry
Strong near-term demand is countered by overcapacity and the risk of
price cutting.
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