《经济学人》我国调查报告之二(英文版)(ppt 13页)

《经济学人》我国调查报告之二(英文版)内容提要：
    Recent performance stunning，more to come in the year ahead，But policy stimulus being withdrawn，strong momentum, but balance sheets? Restraining factorsdebts are high, spare capacity, assets prices vulnerable, external deficit2004 are great, but business conditions tougher in 2005-06?
     Domestic economy is restructuring，under cover of export led growth，But needs more time，SME weakness, overcapacity, no pricing power，cannot yet offset export slowdown，Export deceleration will stall reform，still a long way to go before domestic recovery in place
     Only a sluggish recovery exports but the euro  restocking, capex business ubdued
 consumers jobs, pensionsPolicy boost? debt levels pension fears Benefiting from OECD pickup import demand surging Selling into other emerging markets regional trade ynamics But risk appetite has fallen sharply past 18mths were extraordinarybut investors now leavingspreads rising Reform efforts?
      World growth fantasticChina is 6th largest economy at market prices, 2nd at PPP, growing at 9%Exceptional times cannot lastChinese policy tightening impacts domestically and also elsewhereCommodities, tradeSlowdown likely, but risks of worse
Soft landings are hard to engineersome investors will be hurt

 

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