全球经济分析（pdf 30）

Global Economy: Monthly Forecast Review: The
striking feature regarding our global growth projection is its relatively
steady profile. Following the 5.3% peak in growth reached in H1:04, global
growth has posted a deceleration to 4.1%, a trend we anticipate will remain in
place this year and next. The other feature likely remaining is that the US and
China continue to lead global growth, with the US being largely the engine of
global demand growth. See page 2.
Foreign Exchange: The US dollar remains supported versus the
euro. The Fed is still engaged in an as-yet unmatched tightening programme,
while the euro area is structurally and cyclically challenged, and in need of a more
competitive exchange rate for both political and economic motives. See page 15.
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