德意志银行-欧盟观察(pdf 35)

Fiscal policy in the EU – Back to borrowing?
The prospect of joining the European Monetary Union prodded the then member
states in the mid- and late 1990s into considerable fiscal discipline. In the early
years following the launch of the single currency the fiscal policy situation also
improved, although this was mainly due to the economic situation. In structural
terms, however, public budgetary positions have worsened in recent years; but
the positions in the individual countries differ substantially. Given demographic
developments and the foreseeable strains on the public purse in particular, huge
efforts are still needed to place fiscal policy on a permanent and sustainable
basis...................Page 4
Caroline Pötsch, +49 69 910-31705 (caroline.poetsch@db.com)
Jörn Quitzau, +49 69 910-31890 (joern.quitzau@db.com)
Western chemical companies move into Eastern Europe
Economic expansion is boosting chemical consumption in the new EU countries
in Central and Eastern Europe (CEECs). We foresee turnover in the chemical
industry there growing from EUR 22 bn at present to EUR 35 bn (+7% p.a.) by
2010. While this is above the growth of 5% p.a. anticipated for the EU-15,
chemical imports to the CEECs are also expected to continue booming because
demand there cannot be covered by domestic production. Germany’s
geographical proximity opens up new export opportunities, for the German
chemical industry in particular. Foreign chemical companies are stepping up
investment in the CEECs, too, because direct contact with customers is often of
pivotal importance. The proximity to markets further east is also an attraction.
......... Page 11
Uwe Perlitz, +49 69 910-31875 (uwe.perlitz@db.com)
EU social policy must not unhinge locational competition
The transfer of social competences to the EU, underway for some time now, is
problematic. Of course the Union needs competences to enshrine the free
movement of workers in social legislation. But dubious attempts are also afoot to
protect the comparatively high level of social protection in, say, Germany through
minimum standards. Harmonisation of this kind would overtax the new member
states in particular and persistently hamper real convergence in the EU. Instead,
the established welfare states should intensify market-based reform of their
social security systems. The Constitutional Treaty upgrades the EU’s extensive
catalogue of social protection rights. As a result, the checks and balances
designed to shore up precedence for the principle of subsidiarity are likely to be
put increasingly to the test. ...................................Page 17
Dieter Bräuninger, +49 69 910-31708 (dieter.braeuninger@db.com)
Data overview ......................... Page 32
..............................