造纸行业年度投资策略(pdf 42页)

内容目录
2005 年纸浆市场供给进一步趋紧...........................................................6
木纤维消费比重增加...............................................................................6
进口依赖增强.........................................................................................7
木浆：价格将微降1.5%..........................................................................8
废纸：需求强劲，价格将继续上涨12% ................................................ 11
非木浆：产量与价格保持稳定...............................................................13
成本转嫁率具有趋涨抗跌的特征............................................................14
趋势产品总体供过于求..........................................................................15
纸品产需缺口趋于稳定..........................................................................15
纸品消费趋于高档.................................................................................16
新闻纸：供给显著大于需求，价格下跌5%并低位运行...........................17
铜版纸：供大于求，价格下跌2%并低位运行.........................................21
白纸板：供求基本平衡，价格上涨2% ..................................................24
国内纸业收入增长趋缓..........................................................................27
产需缺口部分由产品向原料转移...........................................................27
行业产需缺口近年增速10%..................................................................28
行业产需缺口是纸业增长的主要拉动力.................................................29
纸业增长受制于经济增长趋缓...............................................................29
纸业景气略降.......................................................................................30
销售收入增长率将大幅回落9 个百分点..................................................31
产能扩张是效益提升的核心驱动力........................................................32
行业集中提升效益.................................................................................32
行业集中度提升空间还很大...................................................................33
产能扩张是行业效益增长的核心驱动力..................................................34
国内纸业国际竞争劣势的主因还是规模不足...........................................34
纸业投资策略.........................................................................................35
行业评级为“中性”...................................................................................35
以“产能扩张”为核心的选股标准..............................................................35
选择投资品种..........................................................................................35
估值与评级.............................................................................................38
纸业投资的风险点...................................................................................38
人民币升值对提升行业估值的作用在减弱...............................................39
免责条款................................................................................................40

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