全球半导体市场观察(英文版).pdf39

First-quarter earnings results were solid and positive surprise potential remains high
First-quarter earnings results were solid throughout the majority of the technology
food chain, and positive earnings surprises were prevalent. Based on solid economic
growth, expanded backlogs, and a benign pricing environment, we expect revenue
growth to accelerate, margins to continue to expand, and positive surprise potential to
remain high for most semiconductor companies in the second quarter.
• End-market demand was better than the seasonal norm for the third straight quarter
Despite investor perceptions to the contrary, end-market demand has exceeded the
seasonal norm for three consecutive quarters; average sequential growth rates were 4
percentage points above the five-year average growth rates for those quarters.
• Inventories remain historically low and need to increase
Days of inventory in the key end-markets we monitor declined 7% YoY, marking the
eleventh consecutive quarter with a YoY decline. Cisco’s 18% sequential increase in
days of inventory suggests to us that smart management teams with solid margins and
financial resources have recognized that they need to hold a higher level of inventories.
We expect investors to eventually realize that inventories are a significant asset when
the economic environment is strong, end-demand is improving, and lead times and
pricing trends are favorable for semiconductor companies.
• Sequential and YoY semiconductor industry revenue growth should accelerate in 2Q
The second quarter has historically offered the strongest sequential revenue growth of
the year (5% average in the last 25 years), and we expect this year to show a sharp
acceleration to 7–10% sequential and 37–40% year-over-year growth.
• Capacity utilization levels should remain high
When historically low supply-chain inventories are combined with the strength in the
global economy, we expect capacity utilization rates to remain high during the
remainder of this year, and this should enable visibility to remain high and pricing
pressure for semiconductors to remain benign.
• Improved valuations: Most semi stocks should advance o
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