决策分析培训课件(PPT 74页)

什么是决策
决策的主要特征
决策的过程
决策的要素
决策的分类
Some Examples
什么是决策分析
主要内容
概率论基础
The Goferbroke Company Problem
Prospective Profits
Prior Probabilities
Payoff Table (Profit in $Thousands)
The Maximax Criterion
The Maximin Criterion
The Maximum Likelihood Criterion
Bayes’ Decision Rule
决策准则小结
Decision Trees
Decision Tree for Goferbroke
Using TreePlan
Using New Information to Update the Probabilities
Seismic Survey for Goferbroke
Calculating Joint Probabilities
Probabilities of Each Finding
Calculating the Posterior Probabilities
Probability Tree Diagram
Posterior Probabilities (后验概率)
Template for Posterior Probabilities
Decision Tree for the Full Goferbroke Co. Problem
Decision Tree with Probabilities and Payoffs
决策分析步骤
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