中国航空业深度研究英文(pdf 21页)
中国航空业深度研究英文(pdf 21页)内容简介
Upgrading the airlines on the Olympics – On our forecast of 18% air passengergrowth and a historically high 74.8% passenger load factor for 2008, we thinkthe Olympics theme will drive Chinese airline stocks. We rollover our estimatesto end-2008 and raise our targets for Air China, CSA and CEA by 48%, 36% and30% to HK$8.00, HK$5.50, HK$3.35, respectively. Air China remains our toppick as the key beneficiary of the 2008 Beijing Olympics.
Air China is our top pick of the Chinese airlines – As the sole designatedChinese airline for the Beijing Olympics and with 45% market share in Beijing,Air China should benefit most from the Olympics on expanding margins andgreater global brand recognition. We estimate its 2008 EPS to reach RMB0.56.
Scenario analysis supports our bullish view – If Singapore fuel averages US$70and US$65 in 2007 and 2008, respectively, and the renminbi appreciates 6%p.a., we think the Big Three could see 60% upside. Even under a moreconservative scenario (fuel $75/$70, renminbi appreciates 3.5% p.a.), we thinkAir China could still offer 20% upside.
Positive catalysts – A favorable industry earnings outlook and the possibility ofsupportive government policies would support airline valuations (see our 3January 2007 note https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SAP01615.pdf), in our view.
Key risks – 1) Volatile fuel prices; and 2) possibly high acquisition premium forCEA if SIA walks away. We view a cut in fuel surcharges in line with fuel pricesas neutral.
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Air China is our top pick of the Chinese airlines – As the sole designatedChinese airline for the Beijing Olympics and with 45% market share in Beijing,Air China should benefit most from the Olympics on expanding margins andgreater global brand recognition. We estimate its 2008 EPS to reach RMB0.56.
Scenario analysis supports our bullish view – If Singapore fuel averages US$70and US$65 in 2007 and 2008, respectively, and the renminbi appreciates 6%p.a., we think the Big Three could see 60% upside. Even under a moreconservative scenario (fuel $75/$70, renminbi appreciates 3.5% p.a.), we thinkAir China could still offer 20% upside.
Positive catalysts – A favorable industry earnings outlook and the possibility ofsupportive government policies would support airline valuations (see our 3January 2007 note https://www.citigroupgeo.com/pdf/SAP01615.pdf), in our view.
Key risks – 1) Volatile fuel prices; and 2) possibly high acquisition premium forCEA if SIA walks away. We view a cut in fuel surcharges in line with fuel pricesas neutral.
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