中国造纸业_瑞银华宝(PDF 44页)

Summary and investment case
Why we find the paper market attractive
China’s paper consumption increased at a CAGR of 9.3% in 1980-02, in line
with its GDP growth rate. Production also increased at the same pace during this
period. Total paper consumption reached 41.2m tonnes in 2003. About 10% of
total consumption was satisfied by net imports.
In our view, the paper sector in China is attractive because:
! 2001-06 is an upside cycle for paper prices and demand in China.
! Import-substitute demand in the high-end segment should be a new profit
driver in this cycle.
! The consolidation since 1998 has not only enhanced the size and
competitiveness of large enterprises, but also improved the profitability of
the industry.
! China’s market is far from saturation, with paper consumption per capita
only two-thirds of the world average, one-eighth of Japan and one-tenth of
the US.
However, we believe downside could come from the following:
! Heavy reliance on the import of raw materials, including pulp and waste
paper. Increasing international pulp prices have not only squeezed the
margins of local companies, but also increased the volatility of their
earnings.
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