中国汽车行业管理知识分析深度(英文版)(PDF 69页)

中国汽车行业管理知识分析深度(英文版)(PDF 69页)简介：

SAIC: Buy (on our Conviction Buy List) with 20% upside potential.
1. Ranked No.1 in the GS scorecard exercise of identifying long-term winners; excels in scale and strategic transformation.
2. Revenue and profit growth underestimated by the market, in our view (EPS CAGR of 27% between 2009 and 2012E).
3. Strong product portfolio of Shanghai GM /Shanghai VW/local brands boosts volume and profit (market share up 1% 1Q10 vs. FY09, ASP up 7% 2010E vs.
FY09).
4. Heavy investment in R&D and local brand building (Roewe/MG) starts to yield (2009-2012E volume CAGR of 50%).
5. Attractive current valuation: 2011E EPS, P/E, and P/B at Rmb1.88/9.2X/1.9X, strong EPS growth not fully priced in.
Changan (A): Buy with 11% upside potential due to its attractive current valuation.
1. Changan is favored by the government when it comes to industry consolidation.
2. Changan’s short-term volume/earnings performance is strong thanks to its increased sales of compact cars and minivans.
3. We believe that the company’s current valuation is relatively attractive: 2011E P/E and P/B at 10.7X/1.9X, respectively, compared to the industry
average of 11.5X/2.6X in China.
BYD: Sell (on our Conviction Sell List) with 26% downside potential.
1. Ranked No.2 in the GS scorecard exercise of identifying long-term winners; the clear leader in terms of growth and electric vehicle/CO2 efficiency.
2. Strong car volume growth slows (2009/2010E/2011E at 162%/32%/18%) when tackling the mainstream segment, as it takes time to build up brand
prestige, positive customer experiences, safety standards, and core competences in traditional ICE powertrain.
3. The company’s dependence on government subsidies and its vertical integration business model may prevent its EV/car Li-ion battery business from
gaining more than 20% market share in China. Solar panel/grid application of Li-ion battery is in its infancy.
4. Rich valuation: 2011E EPS, P/E, and P/B at Rmb2.89/19.8X/5.0X is hard to justify using our SOTP-based valuation methodology.

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