高级投资项目管理与经济效益评价(英文版)(ppt 75页)

高级投资项目管理与经济效益评价(英文版)内容提要：
Suppose there are two mutually exclusive projects, A and B, the following graphs show that the trend of A’s NCFs and the trend of B’s NCFs are different. Obviously, graph 1 states that A’s NCFs are always larger than B’s NCFs over the periods, thus, NPVA>NPVB; graph 2 states for the earlier periods A’s NCFs are larger than B’s NCFs, thus NPVA > NPVB, but for the later periods (after K*) A’s NCFs are smaller than B’s NCFs, thus NPVA<NPVB.
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Problem Raised from the Assumption on Equal Life
Usually, capital budgeting assumes that all mutually exclusive projects have the same life (and scale). In practice, this assumption many not be hold. Given that a set of mutually exclusive projects have different lives, how to evaluate and comparing their NPVs?
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NCFi with probability Distribution：
In many cases in practice, a firm is faced with an investment project which NCFs are uncertain, for each period of n periods, there may be more than one possible values of NCF associated with probabilities。 
To determine NPV under uncertainty, it is necessary to identify whether NCFs in each period are independent or dependent.

 

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